Analysis on the Supply Side of the Domestic Paper Industry Chain: Stable Increase in Waste Paper Recycling Rate

Middle stream supply: stable output expansion of China's Pulp and paper industry

According to statistical data from the China Paper Association, since 2014, China's paper and cardboard production has shown an overall upward trend of fluctuations, with growth rates remaining at a low level. In 2017, China's paper and paperboard production exceeded 11 million tons for the first time; In 2018, due to the decline in industry prosperity, the overall production decreased slightly. From 2019 to 2022, the production increased year by year, and by 2022, China's paper and paperboard production reached 124.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%.

Upstream supply: pulp and waste paper supply situation

--Large fluctuations in pulp production

According to statistical data from the China Paper Industry Association, China's pulp production showed a fluctuating trend from 2014 to 2022. Due to the promotion of digitalization and Paperless office, there are more substitutes in the downstream market of pulp, and the demand for pulp has declined. The overall production of pulp from 2017 to 2020 is in a downward trend. From 2021 to 2022, China's pulp production has rebounded, reaching 85.87 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

--Waste pulp accounts for about 70%

From the perspective of the supply structure of China's pulp segmented market, from 2018 to 2022, the supply of waste pulp ranked first, and its proportion in the total production showed a decreasing trend year by year, from 76% to 69%. In 2022, the supply of waste pulp reached 59.14 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared to the previous year.

--Stable increase in waste paper recycling

From 2014 to 2022, the amount and rate of waste paper recycling in China showed a fluctuating upward trend. In 2014, China's waste paper recycling volume was 48.41 million tons, with a recycling rate of 48.1%; By 2022, China's waste paper recycling volume will reach around 66 million tons, with a recycling rate of over 53%.

--Significant decline in waste paper utilization rate

In recent years, the amount of waste paper recycling in China has been continuously increasing. In comparison, the consumption of waste paper is smaller than the recycling amount, which has led to a significant decline in the utilization rate of waste paper in China. From 2014 to 2017, the utilization rate of waste paper in China was above 70%. By 2022, the utilization rate of waste paper in China had dropped to 53.5%.